ONE HUNDRED YEARS LATER: SARAJEVO BURNS AGAIN

Europe is in a deep crisis. Exactly as it was a century ago, Sarajevo could be the stage on which the spark that led to world war was ignited. It is a small spark, for now, a local conflict between three ethnic groups that have always been at war with each other, but in a century things have not really changed: under the ashes of that conflict embers are still burning, and they are ready to infect the whole of Europe – once again. Yet in Brussels as in Washington, no one seems to show the necessary attention. For the umpteenth time in the last 120 years, every external diplomatic initiative seems to make the situation worse, rather than better.

We have long forgotten it, but the civil war that led to the disintegration of Yugoslavia in the 1990s began in the small town of Banja Luka – the capital of a Serb-majority province in the region of Bosnia-Herzegovina, divided into three areas the Serbian Catholic one (where just over 15% of the population lives), the smaller, Bosnian Orthodox one (but where 30% of the population, who settled in the country half a millennium ago, lives) and the Muslim majority (over 50% of the population) who, even in the years of Yugoslavia’s existence, were considered an inferior caste with no rights[1].

Upon the death of Marshal Tito, it was the Catholic minority in Banja Luka that unleashed the war against all ethnic and religious communities in the Yugoslav federation, resulting in the implosion and crumbling of national unity and a barbaric and bloody civil war[2] that turned Bosnia’s capital, Sarajevo, into a burning cemetery[3]. The new multi-ethnic state of Bosnia and Herzegovina is the result of years of negotiations, which ended with the signing of the Dayton Treaty in November 1995, which for the most part recognises the borders that emerged from the clashes of the civil war[4].

Since independence was achieved in 1992, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s elections have been held on the first Sunday in October, and the heated election campaign, full of intrigue, threats and turmoil, runs throughout the summer. The result, once again this year, was the usual: Milorad Dodik, the Serbian Catholic in power since 2009, decided to run for the presidency of the Serbian Republic, one of the three components of the Bosnian Federation[5], despite the opposition continuing to cry foul (Dodik allegedly obtained around 48% of the vote[6]), and from this position he carries out sabotage of the federal government’s activities in Sarajevo.

His term of office began on 16 November[7], despite the fact that the Serbian opposition parties, led by the Movement for Democratic Change (PDP) and its leader, Jelena Trivić[8], claimed victory in a shattered country and refused to accept the result[9]. In the city of Banja Luka, which has become the de facto capital of the Serb Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina since Dodik came to power, tens of thousands of people took to the streets to demand a halt to the recount of ballots, accusing the Central Electoral Commission of attempting to subvert the will of the ethnic Serb people[10].

Immediately after the polls closed, the High Representative – a diplomatic figure set up by the Dayton Accords and as their guarantor – Christian Schmidt (who is recognised neither by Banja Luka nor Moscow, but is recognised by the EU and the USA[11]), imposed a change in the Bosnian electoral law and constitution[12]. This reform has been under discussion for six years, but putting it back on the table today has proven to be a very serious mistake: Dodik claims the electoral triumph and points out that the chaos of the results is a consequence of the new rules imposed by Schmidt[13].

Before the change, Dodik, an ultranationalist Serb, was the Serbian member of the country’s tripartite presidency, along with Šefik Džaferović[14] (Bosnian Muslim) and Željko Komšić[15] (Croatian)[16]. Dodik will now be, alone, the head of Republica Srpska established by the Dayton Peace Agreement, which ended the war in Bosnia – an agreement negotiated by Slobodan Milošević, the then President of Serbia, Croatian President Franjo Tuđman and Alija Izetbegović, President of Bosnia-Herzegovina[17]. In addition to the military and border definition aspects, the Dayton Treaty contained the new Constitution of Bosnia and Herzegovina and an agreement that was to allow all refugees and displaced persons to return to their homes[18].

Dodik’s political parable

Milorad Dodik[19]

Milorad Dodik was born on 12 March 1959 in Banja Luka, where he graduated from the Faculty of Political Science at the University of Belgrade[20]. As a young Single Party official, he held a number of important official positions in the Municipality of Laktaši (1986-1990), including the office of the President of the Municipal Executive Council. In 1990, he was elected to the Parliament of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a candidate of the Alliance of Reform Forces, and this is where his political rise began[21].

He founded the Club of Independent Parliamentary Representatives and became its President – the Club which, in 1996, became the basis for the creation of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats. In 1997 he was re-elected to the People’s Assembly of Republica Srpska, and the following year he was elected Prime Minister of Republica Srpska of Bosnia. He held this position until January 2001[22]. He was re-elected in 2006, and in November 2014 he became prime minister for the second time. In November 2018, he again joins the government as the Serbian Member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina. And now he begins his third term as the President of the Republic[23].

Despite the fact that 30 years ago he was politically close to the reformist Ante Marković, the last prime minister of Yugoslavia[24], Dodik has made a 360-degree turn, clearly expressing his intention to reconstitute a Bosnian Serb army and transfer the exclusive competences of Sarajevo to Banja Luka^[25]. In this city Dodik wants to concentrate some of the already scarce exclusive competences of the central state: among them the drug agency, an important body in times of pandemic. At the same time, he proposes a reform of the tax and justice systems, all topped off by intimidation exercises by the Bosnian Serb police and army near Sarajevo that raise fears of the return of Tito’s regime[26].

At the time of the Dayton negotiations, Milorad Dodik was praised by then US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright as a ‘breath of fresh air’[27]. Much has changed since then. In 1998, Dodik was supported by international troop officials in Bosnia. Less than ten years later, in 2006, his return to the post of prime minister marked the beginning of a new era of hard-line separatist nationalism[28]: Dodik proved to be a fervent nationalist, aspiring to the secession of the Serb-majority Republika Srpska, as well as an autonomous administrative unit, the Brcko district, from the rest of Bosnia[29].

Instead, the Dayton Accords provide for cooperation between the three ethnic groups, represented by three presidents, each of whom can veto if they detect potential discrimination against the ethnic group they represent[30]. The 2022 elections chose three future presidents: Denis Becirovic (Bosnian), Zeljko Komsic (Croatian) and Zeljka Cvijanovic (Serbian)[31]. The umpteenth appointment of Dodik as head of government calls into question this agreement and this election result, which proposes the separation of the military, the judiciary and the tax administration: in fact, secession[32].

The ethno-religious division of Bosnia and Herzegovina[33]

In October 2021, the National Assembly of Republika Srpska voted by a very narrow majority to establish an Entity Medicines Agency, thus withdrawing its support for the Bosnian National Medicines Agency[34], and the opposition did not vote in protest against Dodik. On 8 November 2021, Dodik announced the withdrawal of Serbian soldiers from the Bosnian Armed Forces: ‘We will not allow the Armed Forces to become a Muslim army’, he said: ‘It is good for Bosnia and Herzegovina to be demilitarised, this was our proposal from the beginning‘[35]. He thus becomes an absolute rarity: a political leader whose goal is to wipe out the existence of the country he presides over[36], counting not on his own electorate, but on the explicit support of Russia, Serbia and Hungary – Putin’s allies in the EU area[37].

Dodik threatens the secession of the Serbian Republic and calls for a ‘peaceful dissolution’ of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina – which is why, since 2017, he has been subject to US economic sanctions ‘for actively obstructing efforts to implement the 1995 Dayton Accords‘[38]. In January 2022, the US Treasury Department again sanctioned Dodik[39] for taking away state competences and transferring them to Republika Srpska[40]. The sanctions also involve Alternativna Televizija doo Banja Luka, a company controlled by Dodik, and some of its activities described as ‘corrupt‘ and ‘open threats to the stability and territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina’[41]. The United Kingdom followed the American example in April 2022[42].

Paradoxically, the secessionist process was blocked by the invasion of Ukraine, although Dodik claims that the war only postponed his plans[43]. And this time he did not run for the highest office in the Bosnian presidency, but concentrated his energies on preserving his power in Republica Srpska[44]. His candidate for the federal tripartite presidency, Zeljka Cvijanovic, was elected by a large majority (the first woman to become president in independent Bosnia since 1996[45]): before the vote, she was the prime minister of Republica Srpska[46]. In this way, Dodik maintains his power over Republica Srpska and influences Sarajevo through Mrs Cvijanovic, who is also affected by the British sanctions[47].

Now the whole country is in turmoil, but when the dust settles, it will become clear what influence Dodik has on Bosnia’s institutions and foreign policy, a choice that depends on whether or not he joins a federal coalition government. He has already declared that Republika Srpska wants the post of Bosnia’s foreign minister. If his party succeeds in obtaining the post, it would mean four years of haemorrhaging of Bosnia’s international reputation and probably its new position alongside Russia, and no longer with the European Union[48].

Russian influence and the European counterweight

Milorad Dodik and Vladimir Putin[49]

With the British and US sanctions, Dodik’s rapprochement with Russia was predictable. Dodik opened a representative office of Republica Srpska in Moscow in an attempt to pursue an alternative foreign policy to the official one in Sarajevo[50]. He has visited Russia on several occasions over the past ten years and has met Vladimir Putin several times since 2014[51], most recently shortly before the vote[52]. Dodik offers Russia new support in the Western Balkans and the Mediterranean.

Dodik stands by Putin’s side in the war in Ukraine[53], unlike the other members of the Bosnian presidency[54]: ‘As far as our political relations in Bosnia and Herzegovina are concerned, the Russian position is bound by the support of the text of the Dayton Agreement. The Agreement that the West tried to dismantle. Moscow, on the other hand, remained committed to the agreement and therefore remains a respected ally’[55]. So Dodik supports the legitimacy of the Russian referendums in eastern Ukraine, and sees them as a model for dismembering Bosnia[56], as opposed to Belgrade, which sees them as a pretext for the secessionist aims of nationalists[57]. Dodik met again with Putin in June and in September[58].

On 9 September 2022, the Football Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina announced that the national football team would play a friendly match with Russia in St. Petersburg on 19 November. The news provoked the ire of the people, and the most famous players, Edin Dzeko and Miralem Pjanic, strongly criticised the decision, announcing that they would not play. The head of Bosnia’s football federation is Vico Zeljkovic, 34, grandson of Milorad Dodik[59]. As for the continuation of the invasion in Ukraine, Dodik stated that ‘events have shown that it was a good decision for Bosnia and Herzegovina not to join NATO’, and that the country would not support the sanctions[60]. In this way Banja Luka is a way out for Belgrade, which desperately needs Brussels but at the same time does not want to alienate the sympathies of the government in Moscow[61].

At the heart of the dispute is Bosnia and Herzegovina’s request to join NATO, which played a key role in the implementation of the Dayton Agreement through a nine-year military presence from December 1995 to December 2004. Bosnia and Herzegovina joined the Partnership for Peace (PfP) programme in 2006, was invited to join the Membership Action Plan in 2010 and presented its first reform programme in 2019[62]. To facilitate cooperation, the country has a diplomatic mission to NATO General and NATO maintains a military headquarters in Sarajevo[63].

In September 2020 Dodik and his presidential colleagues declared that EU candidate status for Bosnia and Herzegovina was possible in 2021 if the country ‘implements successful reforms’[64]. But already the following year, in September 2021, Dodik travelled to Budapest to attend the ‘demographic summit’, where he criticised the EU, the LGBT community and the handling of the European migrant crisis[65]. In an interview with the German weekly Der Spiegel, Dodik stated that ‘the Western Balkans have never been as far from EU membership as they are today’[66].

20 December 2021: Hungarian President Viktor Orban promises Dodik 100 million Euros to promote the secession of the Bosnian Serb Republic[67]

A recent poll by the International Republican Institute found that 58% of Bosnians and 52% of Croats support a pro-EU policy. The country’s membership in NATO is supported by 69% of Bosnians and 77% of Croats, but only 8% of Bosnian Serbs[68]. Many analysts point out that, in addition to opposing Bosnia’s integration into Western institutions, both Dodik and Putin aim to hinder efforts to strengthen the Bosnian state: ‘Russia has always acted as a cheap spoiler in Bosnia‘[69].

Russia does not accept the genocide verdicts handed down by international courts against Serbian military leaders and is against Bosnia’s membership in NATO. Moscow supports both Dodik and the Bosnian Croat leader Dragan Čović (under indictment for tax fraud[70], embezzlement[71] and abuse of office[72]). Milorad Dodik has also been accused of the illegitimate use of state funds and the purchase of flats for allies and friends. The former Minister of Finance of Republica Srpska, Novak Kondić was charged together with Dodik, but both were acquitted in October 2005 due to lack of evidence[73]. By keeping Bosnia dysfunctional, Dodik and Čović try to prevent the country from meeting the criteria for NATO membership[74].

Russia’s convergence of interests with the two separatist leaders in Bosnia ensures that NATO’s expansion into the Balkans is put on hold. For Russia, this is a low-cost venture, keeping NATO out of this area in which the West has invested heavily since the Dayton accords. Without a firm anchor in the Atlantic Alliance, the Balkans remain the powder keg of Europe. Amid rising tensions, thousands of soldiers from 20 NATO countries conducted a large-scale military exercise at the end of October 2022. Thus, the European Union decided to strengthen its military presence in Bosnia and ‘support the sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity of the country‘[75].

For the rest, Brussels defends a historical truth: founded on the greatest crime committed on European soil since the Second World War, Republika Srpska will be remembered for the fact that practically all its creators were sentenced to long prison terms for war crimes and crimes against humanity[76]. Nonetheless, Brussels can do nothing against Bosnian Serb fervour, since any sanctions would not be shared by Slovenia and Hungary. Then there is the question of EU membership. Bosnia and Herzegovina only received ‘candidate‘ status[77] in October 2022[78].

But if the reforms proposed by Dodik were to take the place of the 14 priorities set out in 2019 by the European Commission, the scenario would change radically: ‘The problem is that Bosnia and Herzegovina, with the end of the war and the Dayton Accords, has been given an administrative structure that slows down not only internal administration, but also foreign policy decisions’. Since the presidency of the country consists of three members, each for one of the three constituent peoples – Bosnia Herzegovina has about 140 ministries, and it is a very complicated and slow system[79].

Banja Luka, November 2022: an oceanic protest against Milorad Dodik and the Serbian secessionists[80]

The European Union’s doubts about enlargement have often been traced back to the fear of migration or, in any case, movement of populations of Muslim origin: “President Emmanuel Macron said two years ago that ‘Bosnia is a time bomb’, referring precisely to the danger represented by its Muslim population. This expression is clearly exaggerated and does not reflect reality, but it is indicative of European resistance to including this country in the Union“[81].

Europe opens the door to Bosnia and Herzegovina, but everything will depend on a series of economic, legal and social reforms, the fight against corruption and a path of social reconciliation that has never taken off. On the contrary: after the elections of 2 October, tensions between the three ethnic groups have increased: Trzcna Krajna, the central square in Banja Luka, has become the heart of the protests against Milorad Dodik[82]. The fear is that paramilitary formations will take up arms to defend Dodik and push for secession from Sarajevo. The Croats, who demand more administrative and political powers, threaten to boycott the already fragile democratic institutions, and the country is on the verge of a crisis similar to that of 1992[83].

On 5 November, the representatives of the Serbian minority resigned en bloc: a minister, ten members of parliament, the heads of local administrations, Kosovo police officers – more than 300 out of the 994 on duty (in an action also supported by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić[84]). The reason: number plates – the government in Pristina has imposed the adoption of Kosovo number plates, and the minority wants to keep the Serbian ones and accuses the government of discrimination against them[85]. The Kosovars also take to the streets and Belgrade strengthens the defence of its borders, especially after spotting military drones.

Because the Bosnian crisis also upsets the balance in Belgrade: all it takes is one spark and the country goes up in flames. Russia is there blowing on the fire, and prayers to keep calm are futile[86]. European aid (EUR 165 million offered by Ursula von der Leyen) to support rising energy prices comes at a very high cost: Belgrade has to decide whether it wants to be with Russia or with Europe[87]. On 23 November, Milorad Dodik declared that Republika Srpska would develop cooperation with Russia, China and the United States and continue its path towards the European Union, but without joining NATO[88]. A strong and clear message.

The economic and social situation in Bosnia

Bosnia-Herzegovina’s exports[89]

Since independence, Bosnia and Herzegovina has struggled with an unstable economy, systematic corruption and investments that have proved to be nothing more than a waste of money. Growth over the past decade has depended on selling off the country’s best assets, namely real estate and land[90] to Middle Eastern businessmen, especially in Sarajevo. Only a few politicians, leading oligarchs and notaries make money. The oversized and inept state bureaucracy, lagging behind on effective reforms, only makes the situation worse. The lack of transparency, the flourishing of bogus companies and corruption deliver the coup de grace[91].

The country is heading for stalemate, paralysing political activity, with inflation above 17% and a steady rise in crime. According to the Corruption Perceptions Index, Bosnia is the worst country in Europe and ranks 110th in the world out of 180 countries surveyed. This exacerbates tempers between different ethnic groups[92]. Growth has not translated into jobs and unemployment is a major concern, especially among young people and women – also due to the low level of the education system[93].

Bosnia is experiencing a record population decline: it is estimated that it could lose 20-30% of its population by 2050[94]. One third of Bosnians live abroad, and thousands leave every year, in search of a better quality of life (jobs, education, healthcare, better public services and a cleaner environment). The remaining population is ageing fast and the low birth rate together means a list of major and costly consequences for the economy, a slowdown in the EU accession process and an unfavourable environment for local and foreign businesses and investments[95].

Unemployment is the main problem for 60% of the population, and almost 45% of the inhabitants expect their economic condition to worsen in the future – another reason to leave the country. The inefficient social protection system (social assistance, unemployment benefits, maternity benefits, health insurance) discourages people: the high percentage of people who are not active in the labour market (63 out of 100 people neither work nor look for a job, and only 7 are looking for a job they cannot find) causes a huge loss of productivity throughout the country[96].

Top Five Concerns of Bosnian Citizens[97]

In the desert of prospects, investments and trade with the EU (by far the country’s main trading partner) are not enough to lift an economy in recession due to the pandemic, falling consumption and investments[98]. The EU invested EUR 228 million in 2020 – nothing like this comes from other countries[99]: ‘The economic influence of other countries is very limited: there are no foreign powers cultivating such large interests beyond the EU member states in Bosnia and Herzegovina… Certainly not Moscow: Russia is a poor country. The growing – but still marginal – investments are those of Turkey and the Gulf monarchies, especially the Emirates… Turkey’s intervention is based on the historical legacy of the Ottoman Empire: it is a cultural and religious link, more functional to Ankara than to Sarajevo. This is because President Erdoğan has been trying for some years now to promote himself as the leader of the Sunni community on a global level’[100], explains the Italian agency ISPI[101]. The Turks are building a city in the middle of the mountains, Osenik, 30 km from Sarajevo, which will be a resort for the rich from the Persian Gulf[102].

According to the World Bank, Bosnia’s main challenge is precisely the imbalance in its economic model: incentives are oriented towards the public sector instead of the private sector; towards consumption instead of investment; towards imports instead of exports[103]. After accelerating to 7.5% in 2021, real GDP growth is expected to slow to 4.0% in 2022. Inflation has risen to 16.7% (July 2022), driven by food and energy prices, creating the growing risk of destitution (especially in rural areas, where 52% of the population lives[104]). Annual inflation is expected to reach 11% in 2022, with hopes that some structural reforms introduced this year (2022) will have a positive effect in the next six months[105].

The new undemocratic constitution

Sarajevo, 28 July 1914: Gavrilo Prinzep, a Bosnian secessionist, kills the Austrian Prince Franz Ferdinand – it is the beginning of the First World War[106]

Bosnia has the most decentralised and complex constitutional regime in the world, the result of the Dayton Accords, which serves as the country’s constitution, and is definitely in need of reform. Almost all elected and administrative positions in the government apparatus are filled according to a rigid ethnic key, the main product of which is the breakdown of governance. The system is also blatantly discriminatory, according to eight important rulings of the Bosnian Constitutional Court and the European Court of Human Rights, because it grants representation rights almost exclusively on an ethnic basis and often excludes those who do not identify as such or who are in the ‘wrong’ part of the country (i.e. where the presumed ethnic community does not have an absolute majority)[107].

The United States appointed an envoy for electoral reform in 2021, but only managed to achieve a storm of controversy. The failure worsened with the attempt of High Representative Christian Schmidt (opposed by Russia and China[108]), who tried to change the election laws after the election campaign had already started, causing a new crisis and raising popular indignation[109]. On 10 December 2021, the Parliament of Republika Srpska voted on a series of secession measures. Milorad Dodik wants to abolish all reforms and return to the 1995 constitution, in which all powers belonged to the regions[110].

The new constitution, proposed by Dodik, should return to Serbian autonomy what he considers to be rights illegally taken away by the authorities of Bosnia and Herzegovina[111]. In particular, Republica Srpska should regain security powers, including the re-establishment of its own army, intelligence service and security agency. According to Dodik, the armed forces of Bosnia and Herzegovina are gradually becoming a ‘Muslim force’, due to the reluctance of Serbs and Croats to join the army. There are also plans to separate the judiciary and the prosecutor’s office and to take over the power to collect indirect taxes, including duties and excise taxes, from the centre[112]. In facts: secession.

The European Union goes ahead with Bosnia’s accession process, as if nothing is happening. The international media, after a few days of spasmodic interest, have turned off the lights. No one is concerned about the ashes falling on Bosnia, let alone the embers burning unseen. Another step, yet another in recent years, in completely the wrong direction.

[1] https://web.archive.org/web/20160630144751/http://www.popis2013.ba/popis2013/doc/Popis2013prvoIzdanje.pdf

[2] https://it.euronews.com/2022/01/09/come-trent-anni-fa-i-serbi-di-bosnia-rivogliono-la-secessione

[3] https://web.archive.org/web/20140302163248/http://www.ess.uwe.ac.uk/comexpert/ANX/VI-01.htm ; https://web.archive.org/web/20111213022305/http://www.helsinki.org.rs/tjgenocide_t01.html

[4] https://www.britannica.com/event/Dayton-Accords

[5] https://ilpiccolo.gelocal.it/speciale/il-piccolo-balcani/2022/10/31/news/vittoria_confermata_per_dodik_in_bosnia-12210914/ ; https://www.predsjednikrs.net/en/biography/

[6] https://ilpiccolo.gelocal.it/speciale/il-piccolo-balcani/2022/10/31/news/vittoria_confermata_per_dodik_in_bosnia-12210914/

[7] https://www.agenzianova.com/a/637854aa0a6077.04521439/4139755/2022-11-15/bosnia-oggi-la-prima-seduta-del-nuovo-parlamento-della-repubblica-srpska ; https://www.klix.ba/vijesti/bih/predsjednik-i-potpredsjednici-rs-a-polozili-zakletvu-dodik-opet-izazvao-skandal/221115120

[8] https://sot.com.al/english/rajoni/nje-serbe-qe-do-te-vriste-per-kosoven-kush-eshte-jelena-trivic-kundershta-i540516

[9] https://www.agenzianova.com/news/bosnia-il-2022-si-apre-tra-i-piani-di-dodik-e-lo-spettro-della-secessione/ ; https://www.avvenire.it/mondo/pagine/bosnia-escalation

[10] https://www.lindipendente.online/2022/10/26/bosnia-decine-di-migliaia-in-piazza-in-sostegno-a-dodik/#

[11] https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2022/11/08/bosniya-i-gercegovina-snova-treshchit-po-deytonskim-shvam

[12] https://ba.n1info.com/english/news/international-peace-envoy-in-bosnia-imposed-election-law-changes-on-election-day/ ; https://www.ispionline.it/it/pubblicazione/bosnia-il-sussulto-dei-riformisti-e-limboscata-dellalto-rappresentante-36354